Economic Health Score
Recession Probability
Default Probability
Confidence Level
However, the high inflation rate, a widening current‑account deficit and a sharp decline in large‑scale manufacturing output weigh on prospects, signalling that the economy is still vulnerable to external shocks.
Top Risks
Recession · Elevated. Recession risk remains elevated as the economy shows a contraction in labor‑market sentiment and a sharp rise in consumer prices, while the current account continues to run a deficit.
Sovereign Default · Elevated. Sovereign default risk is elevated, driven by a persistent current account shortfall, a sizeable fiscal deficit, and a limited import cover that signals vulnerability to external shocks.
Health Score Drivers
Latest Release
SBP Foreign Exchange Reserves (Weekly)
6 Aug · $17.0B
Next Release
SBP Monetary Policy Committee Meeting
27 Jul
Data Status
Intelligence computed · 3 Aug · 11:31 PKT
Data checked · 8 Aug 2026 · 06:11 PKT
8 Aug 2026 · 06:11 PKT · Live from SBP EasyData, PBS, World Bank
Macro Drivers — External Sector & Government Finance
Upcoming Calendar
MON 27 JUL
SBP Monetary Policy Committee Meeting
TUE 4 AUG
PIB Auction (Fixed Rate)
WED 5 AUG
Treasury Bill Auction (3M)
Moderate
Pakistan’s economy remains in a moderate zone, buoyed by solid GDP growth and a tightening money supply that has helped temper the currency. However, the high inflation rate, a widening current‑account deficit and a sharp decline in large‑scale manufacturing output weigh on prospects, signalling that the economy is still vulnerable to external shocks.
Top Strengths
Top Weaknesses
Quantitative assessment of Pakistan's macroeconomic risk — updated weekly.
Recession risk remains elevated as the economy shows a contraction in labor‑market sentiment and a sharp rise in consumer prices, while the current account continues to run a deficit. The downturn is countered by a depreciating currency that supports export competitiveness, a robust growth in private credit that fuels investment, and a solid GDP expansion that cushions the impact of the negative shocks.
Key Risks
Strengths
Transparency
Last Calculated
8 Aug 2026
06:11 PKT
Indicators
1/11 Current
10 Stale
Confidence
0%
● Low
Model score · −10 pts per fallback indicator 38/100 · −5 pts per stale indicator · AI explanation via OpenRouter
Sovereign default risk is elevated, driven by a persistent current account shortfall, a sizeable fiscal deficit, and a limited import cover that signals vulnerability to external shocks. The risk is mitigated by a depreciating currency that improves trade terms, a higher policy rate that attracts capital, and a modest import cover that provides a buffer against sudden balance‑of‑payments pressures.
Key Risks
Strengths
Transparency
Last Calculated
8 Aug 2026
06:11 PKT
Indicators
0/7 Current
7 Stale
Confidence
30%
● Low
Model score · −10 pts per fallback indicator 36/100 · −5 pts per stale indicator · AI explanation via OpenRouter
Pakistan's economy is composed of three core sectors, each contributing a different share of overall output. Services dominates, followed by agriculture and industry.
Agriculture (% of GDP)
23.0%
Industry (% of GDP)
20.1%
Services (% of GDP)
50.9%
Overall Growth (2025)
3.7%
Quarterly GDP Growth — Real GVA · SBP / PBS, quarterly
Total liquid foreign reserves are split between the State Bank of Pakistan and commercial banks, providing a buffer for import payments.
Net Liquid (SBP)
$17.0B
Commercial Banks
$0.0B
Total Liquid Reserves
$17.0B
Import Cover
2.5 months · 2026-07-31
24-Week Trend · SBP Forex_Arch.xlsx, weekly, net liquid
A separate, broader monthly measure — Total SBP Reserves (incl. gold/SDR/IMF position) — is $16.0B as of 2026-04. See the Foreign Reserves page for both figures side by side.
Historical average interbank exchange rates published by SBP. Values represent monthly average or previous closing rates and are not live market quotes.
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData — Monthly Average Interbank Rate
Live Exchange Rates · Current interbank market rates for PKR cross-pairs, refreshed intraday from Yahoo Finance market data.
Remittances from overseas Pakistani workers remain a key source of foreign exchange, led by the Gulf region.
Total Remittances
$4.3B
vs Prior Month
+20.2% vs Apr 2026
Latest Release
2026-05-31
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
The current account and trade balance track Pakistan's external financing needs, while M2 growth reflects domestic liquidity conditions.
Current Account
-$0.32B
Trade Balance (Goods)
-$3.32B
Foreign Reserves (SBP)
$17.0B
Money Supply (M2)
Rs 44.04T
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
Consumer price inflation has eased from last year's peak but remains elevated, driven mainly by food, housing and transport costs.
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
Weekly Inflation (SPI) — YoY % · Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, weekly
Beyond the headline CPI, core (non-food, non-energy) and wholesale price measures show how broad-based inflationary pressure is across the economy.
Core Inflation — 24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
The State Bank's policy rate anchors short-term borrowing costs, reflected in Treasury Bill and Pakistan Investment Bond auction yields.
SBP Policy Rate — Recent Trend · SBP EasyData, as-needed
Policy rate, money market yields, core and wholesale prices, and the external accounts that shape Pakistan's financing needs.
Precious metals, energy benchmarks, and US rates that drive global risk appetite and Pakistan's import bill.
Trade flows, investment, competitiveness, industrial output, credit expansion, and Pakistan's fiscal position.
AI-curated Pakistan economic news from verified sources.
Nepra approves 75 paisa per unit hike in electricity tariff under FCA
The tariff hike raises electricity costs, adding to inflationary pressure and reducing disposable income for consumers and businesses.
Express Tribune
Weekly Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended on 06-08-2026
The release of the weekly SPI provides data but does not directly influence Pakistan's macroeconomic conditions.
PBS Official Releases
CPEC skills transfer bears fruit as Pakistani engineer wins int"l recognition Breaking
Independent News Pakistan
KSE-100 loses 347 points amid investor caution
The KSE-100 decline signals investor caution, dampening wealth effects and potentially reducing capital inflows.
Express Tribune
SBP tells banks to settle prize bond sales daily
Daily settlement of prize bond sales improves liquidity and reduces settlement risk in the banking system.
Dawn Business
Central Development Working Party approves Karachi's Rs172bn K-IV project, eyes completion by June next year
Approval of the Rs172bn Karachi K-IV project supports infrastructure development, job creation, and economic activity.
Dawn Business
PSX extends rally despite geopolitical jitters
The PSX rally extends investor confidence, enhancing market depth and potential capital inflows.
Express Tribune
Pakistan’s stock market crosses 600,000 investors for the first time— official
Crossing 600,000 investors expands the market base, improving financial inclusion and market resilience.
Arab News