Live Economic Overview
Pakistan Economic Intelligence Center
A real-time command center tracking the indicators that drive Pakistan's economy — growth, prices, reserves, currency and remittances, all in one place.
Pakistan's economy shows modest growth acceleration and a narrowing current‑account deficit, supported by strong remittance inflows and an ADB loan. However, inflation remains high, reserves are slipping and the currency is under pressure, keeping policy tightening and external financing needs prominent concerns.
- ▶Persistently high inflation despite a tighter policy rate
- ▶Improving external balances driven by remittances and modest current‑account surplus
- ▶Declining foreign reserves and a slightly weaker PKR amid global commodity price volatility
Risk Intelligence
Deterministic probability estimates derived from live economic indicators. AI explains the model output — it never generates the probabilities.
Recession risk sits in the elevated range, reflecting a sharp slowdown in activity, persistent high inflation and a real policy stance that is effectively negative. The modest current‑account surplus and a slight appreciation of the rupee provide some buffer, but the overall outlook remains pressured.
Key Risks
- ▶Sharp contraction in the LSM output
- ▶Persistently high consumer price inflation
- ▶Real policy rate below zero
Strengths
- ▶Current‑account surplus offering external cushion
- ▶Rupee depreciation turning modestly negative, easing import costs
Transparency
Last Calculated
18 Jun 2026
18:16 PKT
Indicators
10/11 Current
1 Stale
Confidence
95%
● High
Model score 35/100 · −10 pts per fallback indicator · −5 pts per stale indicator · AI explanation via OpenRouter
Sovereign default risk remains low, anchored by a manageable fiscal deficit, adequate import cover and a high policy rate that supports debt service. External balances are modestly positive and the currency has stabilized, further limiting default pressures.
Key Risks
- ▶Large fiscal deficit
- ▶Limited import cover duration
- ▶High policy rate increasing debt service burden
Strengths
- ▶Current‑account surplus providing external buffer
- ▶Rupee depreciation turning modestly negative, supporting external positions
Transparency
Last Calculated
18 Jun 2026
18:16 PKT
Indicators
6/7 Current
1 Stale
Confidence
95%
● High
Model score 25/100 · −10 pts per fallback indicator · −5 pts per stale indicator · AI explanation via OpenRouter
GDP Growth
Pakistan's overall GDP growth is driven by three core sectors. FY24 estimates show a moderate recovery led by agriculture, while industry remains under pressure from high input costs.
Agriculture
6.0%
Industry
-0.2%
Services
2.2%
Overall (FY24)
2.5%
Quarterly GDP Growth — Real GVA · SBP EasyData, quarterly
Inflation (CPI)
Consumer price inflation has eased from last year's peak but remains elevated, driven mainly by food, housing and transport costs.
Food
12.4%
Housing & Utilities
10.8%
Transport
9.6%
Core Inflation
9.1%
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
Core & Wholesale Prices
Beyond the headline CPI, core (non-food, non-energy) and wholesale price measures show how broad-based inflationary pressure is across the economy.
CPI Inflation (YoY)
11.7%
Core Inflation (Urban NFNE)
9.0%
WPI Inflation (YoY)
12.7%
SBP Policy Rate
11.50%
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
Monetary Policy & Money Markets
The State Bank's policy rate anchors short-term borrowing costs, reflected in Treasury Bill and Pakistan Investment Bond auction yields.
SBP Policy Rate
11.50%
3M T-Bill Yield
12.31%
3Y PIB Yield
13.25%
3Y - 3M Spread
+0.94 pp
Recent Trend · SBP EasyData, as-needed
Monetary & External Indicators
Policy rate, money market yields, core and wholesale prices, and the external accounts that shape Pakistan's financing needs.
Global Markets
Precious metals, energy benchmarks, and US rates that drive global risk appetite and Pakistan's import bill.
Financial Markets
Pakistan equity market proxy and bond market yields. Live data via Yahoo Finance and SBP EasyData.
KSE-100 Live Chart — Data Unavailable
Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) real-time index data requires a commercial data license from PSX. This restriction applies to all free-tier providers including TradingView and Yahoo Finance. The Global X MSCI Pakistan ETF (NYSE: PAK), a US-listed proxy that previously tracked the MSCI Pakistan Index, is currently unavailable or delisted.
Pakistan Bond Market — T-Bill 3M Yield · SBP EasyData, monthly
Real Economy & Fiscal
Trade flows, investment, competitiveness, industrial output, credit expansion, and Pakistan's fiscal position.
Foreign Exchange Reserves
Total liquid foreign reserves are split between the State Bank of Pakistan and commercial banks, providing a buffer for import payments.
SBP Reserves
$16.0B
Commercial Banks
$5.0B
Total Reserves
$20.9B
Import Cover
3.7 months · 2026-04
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
Live Exchange Rates
Current interbank market rates for PKR cross-pairs, updated hourly from ExchangeRate-API. Distinct from the SBP monthly-average series shown in the historical trend below.
Exchange Rate (PKR)
Historical average interbank exchange rates published by SBP. Values represent monthly average or previous closing rates and are not live market quotes.
USD / PKR
278.84 PKR
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData — Monthly Average Interbank Rate
Worker Remittances
Remittances from overseas Pakistani workers remain a key source of foreign exchange, led by the Gulf region (top corridors shown).
Saudi Arabia
$0.78B
UAE
$0.62B
United Kingdom
$0.45B
United States
$0.41B
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
External Sector & Money Supply
The current account and trade balance track Pakistan's external financing needs, while M2 growth reflects domestic liquidity conditions.
Current Account
-$0.32B
Trade Balance (Goods)
-$3.41B
Foreign Reserves (SBP)
$16.0B
Money Supply (M2)
Rs 44.04T
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
News & Intelligence
GPT-OSS 120BLatest headlines from Pakistan and global markets, enriched with AI sentiment, risk, and economic impact analysis.
FY2026-27 budget: Senate seeks increase of income tax exemption threshold, reduction in electricity tariffs
Higher tax exemption thresholds cut fiscal revenue while tariff cuts increase fiscal deficit, straining public finances.
Dawn Business
Interest rates held as Bank warns of impact of high energy prices
Holding global interest rates amid high energy prices keeps borrowing costs high for Pakistan and sustains import bill pressure.
BBC Business
Centre committed not to ask for further 'sacrifices' after freeze on provinces' development funds: Bilawal
The freeze on provincial development funds limits fiscal space and hampers growth‑stimulating projects.
Dawn Business
Number of job vacancies hits five year-low
A global drop in job vacancies signals weaker economies abroad, potentially curbing remittance inflows to Pakistan.
BBC Business
Oil falls further on Mideast deal, but Fed outlook knocks equities
Falling oil prices reduce Pakistan's import bill and improve the current account, offsetting modest equity market concerns.
Dawn Business